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Is There Safety in the Truck and SUV Sector?


By Daniel Ruiz
Blinders Off, LLC

Until this point, a lot of what I've shared with you is theoretically based on my knowledge and experience of used vehicle values and how I believe they affect new vehicle sales velocity. Today, I am going to share some some hard data that I've been researching with a great deal of effort.

I genuinely believe that used vehicle values have a very significant effect on new vehicle sales velocity. I have explained it on Twitter and on a previous blog post through the concept of trade cycles. Because of this, I am certain that used vehicle values can be used as a leading indicator for inventory management at the manufacturing level, at the retail dealer level and certainly as an investment tool. However, I humbly hold that current used vehicle value indexes sources are not good enough.

There is a very specific group of vehicles that can be monitored in order to better project results.The Manheim and NADA index both have too much noise in the data. For example, the Manheim Index has no model year restrictions and includes new vehicle price inflation in the calculations. NADA goes up to 8 model years. Both average the data over multiple months and include vehicles which, in my opinion, have little to no impact on new vehicle sales velocity. Therefore, I have decided to make my own index. 
For now, I'm going to use Ford as an example please ignore the red residual line until later. 

I have said numerous times that passenger vehicles are at a different points in the value cycle than trucks and SUVs.



This is common knowledge at this point, and most have placed their faith on trucks and SUVs. This includes manufacturers shifting production and rental car companies changing their fleet mix to the better performing SUV and truck sector. Most analyst are looking at fuel prices to mark the top of the SUV and truck market. Here's what they've missed:





Here's WHY this matters:



Now back to residuals. What I want to drive home, in simple terms, is that assuming no change in demand, supply precedes price changes. When used vehicle values underperform residual values, the return rate of leases goes up. The opposite is also true. Less vehicles returned means less auction volume supporting higher prices. More vehicles returned means more auction volume supporting lower prices. Look at the charts again and note the acceleration of used vehicle value declines when used vehicle values fall below residual values. So where do we stand today? You tell me if this looks supportive of higher used vehicle values:



You might wonder what will stabilize used vehicle values going forward. Consider this, a used vehicle is nothing more than a new vehicle transaction that drove off the dealer's lot. 



The answer, years of declining new vehicle sales and we are just getting started.


If you feel that my insight might be a useful part of your investment decisions in the automotive sector, I offer phone consultations as well as in-person presentations through GLG.

These are my opinions and the content contained in or made available through this article is not intended to and does not constitute investment advice. Your use of the information or materials linked from this article is at your own risk.

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  37. BE SMART AND BECOME RICH IN LESS THAN 3DAYS.... It all depends on how fast you can be to get the new PROGRAMMED blank ATM card that is capable of hacking into any ATM machine anywhere in the world. I got to know about this BLANK ATM CARD when I was searching for job online about a month ago... It has really changed my life for good and now I can say I'm rich and I can never be poor again. The least money I get in a month with it is about $50,000.00(Fifty Thousand US Dollars). Everyday I keep pumping money into my account. There is no risk of being caught, because it has been programmed in such a way that it is not traceable, it also has a technique that makes it impossible for the CCTV's to detect you... For details on how to get yours today, email the hackers on: accessatmhackingcompany@gmail.com . Tell your loved ones too, and start to live large. That's the simple testimony of how my life changed for good... Love you... The email address again is: accessatmhackingcompany@gmail.com contact them now and thank me later!!  

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  38. I was searching for loan to sort out my bills& debts, then i saw comments about Blank ATM Credit Card that can be hacked to withdraw money from any ATM machines around you . I doubted thus but decided to give it a try by contacting (smithhackingcompanyltd@gmail.com} they responded with their guidelines on how the card works. I was assured that the card can withdraw $5,000 instant per day & was credited with$50,000,000.00 so i requested for one & paid the delivery fee to obtain the card, after 24 hours later, i was shock to see the UPS agent in my resident with a parcel{card} i signed and went back inside and confirmed the card work's after the agent left. This is no doubts because i have the card & has made used of the card. This hackers are USA based hackers set out to help people with financial freedom!! Contact these email if you wants to get rich with this Via: smithhackingcompanyltd@gmail.com or WhatsApp +1(360)6370612

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  40. I am sure a lot of us are still unaware of the recent development of the Blank ATM card.. An ATM card that can change your financial status within a few days. With this Blank ATM card, you can withdraw between $1,000-$5,000 daily from any ATM machine in the world. There is no risk of getting caught by any form of security if you followed the instructions properly. The Blank ATM card is also sophisticated due to the fact that the card has its own security making your transaction very safe and untraceable. For more info contact Mr Calvin Grayson via email: officialblankatmservice@gmail.com or whatsApp +447937001817

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  41. This card are real i got my card few hours ago and am just coming back from the ATM where i made my first withdraw of $4500, i am going crazy this is fucking real OSCAR WHITE sorry for being so skeptical about it at first don’t blame me the street these days got fucked up lots of scammers and now i can recommend whoever needs a blank ATM card with about $50,000,000.00 on it which you can withdraw within a month because the card has a daily limit.if you are facing any financial problem contact him asap email address is oscarwhitehackersworld@gmail.com or whats-app +1(513)-299-8247 as soon as possible .

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  42. I am sure a lot of us are still unaware of the recent development of the Blank ATM card.. An ATM card that can change your financial status within a few days. With this Blank ATM card, you can withdraw between $1,000-$5,000 daily from any ATM machine in the world. There is no risk of getting caught by any form of security if you followed the instructions properly. The Blank ATM card is also sophisticated due to the fact that the card has its own security making your transaction very safe and untraceable. For more info contact Mr Calvin Grayson via email: officialblankatmservice@gmail.com or WhatsApp via ‪+447937001817‬

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  43. I have being hearing about this blank ATM card for a while and i never really paid any interest to it because of my doubts. Until one day i discovered a hacking guy called Mr. Oscar White, he is really good at what he is doing. Back to the point, I inquired about The Blank ATM Card. If it works or even Exist. They told me Yes and that its a card programmed for random money withdraws without being noticed and can also be used for free online purchases of any kind. This was shocking and i still had my doubts. Then i gave it a try and asked for the card and agreed to their terms and conditions. Hoping and praying it was not fake. One week later i received my card and tried with the closest ATM machine close to me, It worked like magic. I was able to withdraw up to $6000. This was unbelievable and the happiest day of my life with my girlfriend Laurel. So far i have being able to withdraw up to $78000 without any stress of being caught. I don't know why i am posting this here, i just felt this might help those of us in need of financial stability. blank ATM has really change my life. If you want to contact them, Here is the email address: oscarwhitehackersworld@gmail.com ,whats-app +1(209)-643-1515

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  45. Get A Blank ATM CARD And Cash Good Money/Funds Pay Your Debt directly today in any ATM machine around you anywhere in the world. contact oscarwhitehackersworld@gmail.com , It's 100% guaranteed secure with no worries of being caught because the blank card it's already programmed and loaded with good funds in it, in such a way that's not traceable which also have a technique that makes it impossible for the CCTV to detect you, i am not a stupid woman that i will come out to the public and start saying what someone have not done. For more info contact Mr Oscar White and also on how you are going to get your Card, Order yours today via Email: oscarwhitehackersworld@gmail.com ,Text & Call or Whats-app: +1(209)-643-1515

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  47. I was in so much debit and needed a way to clear it up because my life was in danger, then I saw comments about cloned ATM Credit Cards that can be programmed to hack into and withdraw money from any ATM machines around you . I doubted this but decided to give it a try by contacting {skylinktechnes@yahoo.com} they responded with their guidelines on how the card works. I was assured that the card can withdraw $5,000 instant per day and it had a usage limit of 12 months. So I requested one & paid the delivery fee to obtain the card, i was shocked to see the parcel{card} delivered at my doorstep. I picked it up and went back inside and confirmed the workings and genuinity of the card at the atm machine closest to me. This is no doubt because I have the card & have made use of the card countless times without any complaints. These hackers are USA based hackers set out to help people with financial freedom!! Contact these email if you wants to get rich with this Via email skylinktechnes@yahoo.com whatsapp/t: +1(213)785-1553

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