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Showing posts from April, 2018

A Clean Bill of Health

A Clean Bill of Health By Daniel Ruiz Blinders Off, LLC If you’re familiar with my work, you know that I approach automotive analysis a bit differently than most. Many years of experience and research have unveiled used vehicle values as the main driver of retail sales velocity. In my professional opinion, proper management of residual values is an absolute must in order to maintain healthy replacement cycles.    Many are concerned about the massive wave of lease maturities that lies ahead, present company included. While I can assure you the concerns are valid, it’s important to note that exposure to this problem is not shared equally by all manufacturers. As you can see in the chart below, Ford’s securitized lease maturities peaked in the 4th quarter of 2016 perfectly matching the bottom in 36-month auction values. Ford was one of the first manufacturers to publicly voice concerns about falling used vehicle values and the residual risk associated with it. They